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It's January.
It's cold, wet and miserable.
The gyms are packed with people who are starting as they have absolutely no intention of carrying on.
And economists are caveating their predictions with everything they've got - whilst trying (and failing) to consign Michael Gove’s acidic comments about 'experts' to the past.
I've listened to quite a few economists this week, and I can report that there's one good one.
His name’s Ian Stewart, and he's Deloitte’s chief economist - but don't hold that against him. He's also thoughtful, and *hoorah* can explain his thinking to ordinary mortals.
Here's the gist on GDP growth:
- Growth will nudge up in 2017 - but there's no return to the halcyon pre-crisis days
- The world can expect 3.4% growth, as compared to 4.2% pre-crisis
- Advanced economies will reach 1.8%, vs 2.8% pre-crisis
- And emerging economies will turn in c. 4.6%, as opposed to 5.9% pre-crisis
The UK has some downsides and upsides:
- Downsides: Brexit negotiations, a squeeze on real earnings, and a squeeze on business investment despite stated optimism
- Upsides: a slowdown in austerity, and consumer resilience
In the US, President-elect Trump is being spectacularly butch on GDP growth - he's targeting 4% growth (against a long term average of 2.6%). He did say that his economists were not keen on him going public with this particular goal.
In Europe, the risk is political - with elections in the Netherlands, France and Germany. Note that Stewart's comment was that the public and the markets had not necessarily reacted in the way that economists expected. Brexit resulted in a more muted reaction, as did defeat for Renzi in Italy. And Trump’s election was positively glad-handed by the markets.
And globally, well - there's a slowdown in globalisation - pre-crisis the average growth in world trade in goods and services was 6%. Post 2012, it's 3.7%. Stewart’s view is that “globalisation is on the back foot, not dead.”
So there you go. It's growth, Jim, but not as we know it.
Dr Louise Beaumont is Vice Chair - Open Bank Working Group. ''is a collective of banking, open data and FinTech professionals, formed at the request of the UK Government.
Louise has over twenty yearsâ experience in growing companies - from initial spark, to operationalisation, results delivered, and value created. Having previously worked for organisations such as GLI Finance, Siemens, Hewlett Packard, Microsoft, and Capgemini. Louise has advised key UK government departments and units on FinTech and AltFin including; HM Treasury, British Business Bank, Government Office for Science, Cabinet Office, UK Trade & Industry, Department for Business, Innovation & Skills, and Number 10 Downing Street's Policy Unit.
